In the world of economics, the coming days are anything but ordinary. A state of anticipation grips global markets, with everyone awaiting the US Federal Reserve's decision in mid-July. The upcoming interest rate decision could determine the contours of the US economy, and even the global economy, in the second half of 2025.
The Federal Reserve is in a difficult position, with inflation pressures that have not fully subsided and clear signs of a slowdown beginning to emerge from afar. Investors are wondering: Will the US central bank continue its monetary tightening policy, or will it begin hinting at an upcoming interest rate cut? The conflicting expectations have made markets hypersensitive to any statement, any report, or any signal.
Because the economy doesn't wait, quarterly earnings reports from major companies also added to the heat. Some companies reported strong performance, particularly in the technology and energy sectors, but others sent very cautious signals regarding the outlook for demand and consumption, reviving doubts about the resilience of US growth.
In the East, the situation is no less tense. China released its latest inflation report, and the figures came in lower than expected. The decline in consumer prices reflects weak domestic demand, which raises concerns that the Chinese economy is entering a new slowdown. Although the Chinese government has launched monetary stimulus and incentives in recent months, their impact has not yet been sufficient to galvanize growth.
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What makes the situation even more complex is the deep interdependence between economies. If the Fed decides to hold rates steady or cut rates, this could lead to a decline in the dollar and possibly an improvement in emerging markets. If it continues to tighten, however, the opposite could happen, especially given China's current sensitivity to any fluctuation in global demand.
Simply put, the global economy is at a crossroads. Nothing is certain, and no path seems entirely clear. Future decisions, whether from Washington or Beijing, will have direct repercussions for global trade, investment, commodity prices, and everything else that moves the market.
So, if you're following the markets, prepare for a week full of signals, reactions, and possibly surprises.